U.S.-China Entente Will Take More Than Obama, Xi Rapport
By Iain Mills,
on ,
Briefing
Both leaders are entering somewhat uncharted territory, but there is an argument that Xi rather than Obama has more riding on the encounter. It is Xi's highest-profile foreign trip yet as Chinese leader, and was preceded by an important visit to Latin America. The break from protocol and ceremony inherent in the desert retreat are a clear invitation to consider upgrading the bilateral discourse, a measured gesture of American hospitality that will not be lost on the visiting delegation.
That said, there may be a risk of divergent expectations going into the event. This week, one senior unnamed U.S. official told the Washington Post that in previous contacts between Xi and senior U.S. leaders, “Xi has demonstrated what to Western eyes and ears looks and feels like a capacity to engage substantively a little more along the lines of what politicians might do.”
However, despite the arrival this year of a younger generation of Chinese officials that may have a more internationalized approach to negotiations, and notwithstanding Beijing’s recent indications that it is willing to open talks on cybersecurity and is once again accelerating RMB appreciation, optimism should be tempered. As one prominent Chinese foreign policy academic put it this week, the informality may create a better atmosphere to “manage differences” at this stage rather than deliver actual progress on contentious issues.
For the Chinese, upgrading the basic institutional trust in bilateral relations is a key priority, and given that Obama himself will only be in office for the first third of Xi's likely tenure, a good personal relationship between the two men alone will not guarantee long-term improvement in governmental interactions. Rather, both sides will have to make tangible concessions and begin the search for common ground in order to create a tentative strategic framework for moving forward on key issues. The informal backdrop may do away with diplomatic ceremony, but this only serves to increase the scrutiny on the “substantive” ideas and compromises Xi brings to the table.
Whether either leader is in a position to make major concessions, however, is a point of debate. Xi arrives at a critical time in his consolidation of governmental power in Beijing. In the nine months since his unveiling, economic performance has undershot expectations, and there are indications that he has struggled to push through several intended flagship reforms, such as the “Urbanization Plan” and significantly stricter environmental regulations. There has been no sign of progress on socio-political reform, while core policies such as tax and welfare enhancement remain fledgling and uncertain. To compound matters, reports have recently circulated of renewed high-level disputes on the scope and pace of change, with progressive elements increasingly frustrated by the ability of vested interests to disrupt implementation.
As such, there is no small degree of domestic political risk to Xi's time in California. In the past week, coverage of a major fire killing 119 at a northeast China poultry factory has clashed awkwardly with the carefully scripted narrative of Xi's Latin American visits. Chinese stock market performance remains abysmal, and impatience for change is by no means abating.
At the same time, Xi is also the most overtly American-influenced leader in the PRC's history. His cornerstone “Chinese Dream” discourse clearly apes the United States’ national mythology, while the positioning of his wife, Peng Liyuan, into a function similar to that of an American first lady is also a clear break from Chinese convention. But how this shapes his vision for the U.S. role in Asia is unclear, and this combination of factors could leave Xi open to criticisms from domestic nationalists, particularly if he is seen to go soft on perceived “core Chinese interests”—an evocative and sometimes elastic concept.
Beyond solidifying personal relationships, the desert retreat is expected to cover a broad range of strategic and defense issues, including cybersecurity, the various conflicts in the Middle East, North Korea, South China Sea territorial issues, as well as Chinese intentions in Latin America and Africa. Specific economic issues will likely be left to the fifth China-U.S. Strategic and Economic Dialogue, to be held in Washington during the week of July 8-12 this year. As Chinese Ambassador to the U.S. Cui Tiankai said at a recent symposium held in Washington, the meeting "may not have a long list of what we call deliverables, but it will allow our cooperation to deliver much more in the future.”
However, whether China is ready to articulate a practical vision of how it can work with the U.S. to improve cooperation on core issues of strategy is an altogether different matter. Tentative reforms are being seen in the domestic institutions of government, such as the recent dissolution of the Ministry of Railways, restructuring at the National Energy Authority and a corruption drive that has extended to the senior echelons of the all-powerful National Development and Reform Commission.
But conservative elements remain hugely powerful, particularly in senior levels of the party and armed forces, while the institutions of government remain weak and often poorly coordinated. As a result, even if Xi and Obama both seek a unified bilateral strategic framework as their ultimate objective, achieving one will require a great deal of skill and understanding from the broader Chinese and American leaderships, as well as a marked shift in political and popular opinion on both sides of the Pacific.
Iain Mills is an independent China analyst specializing in China’s energy and commodity markets, financial market development, political evolution and rise in Asia. His work has appeared in Asia Times, Global Times, Shanghai Business Review and Investments and Pensions Asia. He is a contributing analyst at Wikistrat and consults for several private sector firms on China strategy and investment.
Photo: President Barack Obama with then-Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping in the Oval Office, Feb. 14, 2012 (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza).
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